2020 Vision

HS #58 2020.5.21

2020 Vision

2020 has given us a new vision of our world.  Let’s explore one aspect via the contributions of three good books – all worth reading if you have some extra time.

“The River of Doubt” by Candice Millard details the compelling adventure of Theodore Roosevelt after his term as president as he joined his son and others in exploring and mapping an unknown tributary of the Amazon River. The author knows her history AND her biology. She reveals that the tropical rainforests are very different from our northern forests. Essentially, the diversity of life in our neck of the woods is comparatively limited, because it is all new. Glaciers covered this area until only 14,000 years ago. So we have relatively homogenous forests. Without much variety, trees of a given species can easily find others of their species for wind-blown pollination.

In contrast, the tropical regions have existed uninterrupted for millions of years. This has allowed time for flora and fauna to co-evolve into specialized niches. Consequently, tropical regions have exotic looking flora and fauna. There are almost ten times as many species of (brightly colored and varied shaped) fish in the Amazon as there are of the same-colored-and-shaped fish in the Mississippi/Missouri system.  

Case in point: Trees of one rain forest species live a long distance from their nearest fertilizing partner. How then do they fertilize? The flower of the tree opens at the exact time that a short-lived insect hatches which feeds on nothing but the pollen of the flower. Given the long evolution of these complex relationships, individuals of one species are critically dependent upon individuals of other species. 

“Things Fall Apart” is the award-winning book by African author Chinua Achebe. Short and an easy read, it tells the fictional but believable story of an African village which becomes home to a couple Western missionaries. These newcomers are sensitive to cultural differences and thus are careful not to be a disruptive force. But alas, their presence sets things in motion that undermine and eventually destroy the village. “Things fall apart” not because of wanton ignorance or malice, but just because the societal framework is fragile. 

Finally, “Antifragile” is a fascinating nonfiction read by Nassim Taleb, who also authored “The Black Swan.” The author describes three different ways to respond to stress. Some things are fragile, that is, easily broken or destroyed. As with the Sword of Damocles hanging by a thread above his head as he eats the king’s feast, just a slight perturbation will bring destruction. 

In contrast to fragile things, durable things are resistant to stress. These can handle change and still retain their form and use. Recall the Phoenix as a classical example. After being harangued and beaten down in spirit, the Phoenix resurrects to its original form. Totally durable. 

However, in contrast to both of these, there are some things which not only withstand stress, but actually are improved by it. The author coins the term "antifragile" for such things. Can you think of a classical example? The Hydra was the mythical beast who, when its head was cut off, grew two heads – twice the strength. Do antifragile things actually exist? Yes, our bones are antifragile. When broken, the healed bone is stronger than the original. Our bodies are antifragile when stressed by viruses and bacteria. Antibodies are formed making the body better than before. 

Can you see the common theme of these books? Similar to coniferous forests, simple societies did not have time to evolve into complicated interdependent entities. Homesteaders who settled the Midwest carried all they needed in a horse-drawn wagon, built a house out of sod or logs on 40 acres, and were self-sufficient in feeding and protecting themselves. A simple society such as that is quite durable. Individuals may be harmed, but no societal damage. 

On the other hand, modern society, like the rainforest, is fragile because it is so interdependent. Even as opposed to a generation ago, factories now operate on just-in-time inventory, thus depending entirely on manufacturers and transportation from around the globe. We all reap the benefits every time we eat a banana or drive a car. But just as Damocles learned that privilege comes with risk, so have we learned it in 2020 – a new 2020 vision. 

Our challenge then, as individuals, communities, nations, and as a world is to ponder how post COVID-19 we can start rebuilding societal structures that retain previous advantages, but are more durable – and possibly even antifragile.