SDIC

HS #40  2018.11.8

SDIC

Last Christmas, Kids’ Hope had a party for the children including Bingo with an assortment of prizes. Jon (I’ll call him) was excited when he saw two hot rod cars among the toys. His expression of hope fell when another boy yelled BINGO! and chose one of them. Three turns later, the same boy shouted bingo again and took the second car. Jon quietly sobbed. As mentors consoled him, it occurred to me that bingo is a good game for children to play. It shows them that life is not fair and that the difference between winning and losing sometimes depends on the luck of the draw. 

Do you remember the opening and closing scenes of “Forrest Gump”?  A feather flitters in the wind – tossing and turning aimlessly. That, of course, was the point of the movie. The outcome of our lives is an unpredictable amalgam of intention and inherent randomness. 

In high school I read a short story about a flea that hatches and develops into an adult all on a single leaf. The flea sits on that leaf waiting – waiting – waiting until a mammal passes by. Then it leaps. If successful, it lands on a furry back, burrows down to a nourishment of blood, finds a leaf and lays eggs – completing the cycle of life. If it misses, it falls to the ground and dies. Its entire existence lay in the success or failure of a single leap. 

Stark pathos. The story resonates deep in the soul – perhaps because we realize the truth of it.  We plan and prepare, doing everything in our power to succeed. But the outcome? Who knows.  The quality Napoleon most wanted in his generals? Lucky. 

Perhaps that’s why American Ninja Warrior is a favorite TV show for millions. Men and women run a three minute obstacle course involving jumping, balancing, climbing, and hanging on. Some have dedicated their lives to finishing the event, building elaborate backyard courses and practicing for hours each week. 

In the Jumping Spider obstacle, contestants leap from a trampoline and must catch themselves with outstretched arms and legs between two parallel walls. If their timing is slightly off, they fall into a watery pit. Like Jon, some break down in tears. But others, stoically accepting the uncertainty of life, promise they will redouble their efforts and try again the next year. 

Life often turns on a dime, determined by minute circumstances. Mathematicians have a term for situations where a slight difference leads to drastically different outcomes: Sensitive Dependence on Initial Conditions (SDIC). One example is the Continental Divide. Spit and it will eventually find its way to the Atlantic Ocean. Give your head a slight twist and spit again – its destiny is the Pacific. 

SDIC is why physicists can determine exactly where the planets will be in 10,000 years, but cannot predict where a fluttering feather will land.  Indeed, in order to calculate the position of an air molecule just one-ten-billionth of a second into the future, a physicist would need to take into account the gravitational force from each electron on the other side of the universe. That’s sensitive!

Meteorologists call it the “butterfly effect” because mathematical models show that the flap of a butterfly’s wings at just the right time and place in, say, Australia could produce a totally different weather system in North America two weeks later. 

A poem from antiquity captures the idea: For want of a nail, a shoe was lost. For want of a shoe, a horse was lost. For want of a horse, a rider was lost. For want of a rider, a battle was lost. For want of a battle, the kingdom was lost. 

 Al Gore understands it. He meticulously tended to every detail in the 2000 presidential election, but didn’t think to inspect the Florida ballots. A misleading design caused thousands to mistakenly vote for the wrong candidate. U.S. and world history has changed as a result. In David McCullough’s “1776”, the author explains that the outcome of the Revolutionary War depended on rolling fog hiding Washington’s army on one critical evening.  

In 334 BC, Alexander III of Mecedon narrowly escaped a death blow.  According to Princeton historian, Josiah Ober, had Alexander the Great been killed – goodbye to the Roman Empire, Christianity, Hellenism, and Western culture. Safe to say you wouldn’t be reading my column right now because neither of us would exist. 

All rather mind-blowing. But rather wonderful. In all likelihood, you will change the world.